If only Russia understood why this is so absurd it’s MUST SEE Salvador Dali style comedy https://twitter.com/i/status/1697424395826810931

Sergey Lavrov started it with this one https://youtu.be/NGizGLceM-I

Who knew Russian propagandists were so funny? We have to get these guys on SNL!

So nice of Russians to provide the fuel tanker spil so we could see the concrete and steel of the Kerch Bridge on Fire, here’s the Anthem tribute https://youtu.be/GSv7CeCFfAk

Hello and welcome to my website. It’s a work in progress right now. I’m Mars / a.k.a. Mark Taylor, you can contact me by email using MARSTAYLOR@YAHOO.COM

See my take on why Ukraine does not need to and should not negotiate below my lovely feline friend, Grey Cat.

Why Russia Must Withdraw from Ukraine

The rate of cash burn through Russia’s reserves is running at around $20 to $30 Bn per month. They are reputed to have $120 to $140 Bn reserves remaining. For this reason, in approximate terms Russia appears set to run out of cash by around February 2024.

Without going into details of all Russia’s military equipment, reliable sources suggest they began with around 3,500 tanks. Now after 501 days in which they have lost on average 4 tanks per day, Russia is reputed to have circa 1,500 tanks left. In the same time period Ukraine has captured many of Russia’s lost tanks and been provided also with Western tanks. While Ukraine has gone from having around 1,000 tanks at the start of the war, and now has approximate parity with Russia at around 1,500. The tale of two armies and their tank numbers is typical also of other equipment, excluding aircraft. Though lagging this trend aircraft numbers also look set to level up in the midterm.

Putin’s bargain with the Russian people, was for them to stay out of politics, and in return they would be left alone, and conscription would be reduced generally and from 2 years duration down to 1. This from the outset has been a weakness, which makes it politically problematic for Russia to leverage its larger population to win on a purely attritional basis. Even so Russia’s fighting style is often wasteful of the lives of their soldiers. Leading according to many sources to a relative rate of attrition in offense and defense of around 5 Russians killed or injured to every 1 Ukrainian fighter. These facts seem to favor the Ukrainians as being more likely to go the distance in this war of survival for their nation.

History records how the USSR forces abandoned their equipment and walked home after being unpaid and starving when their economy collapsed. According to these historic facts, it is highly likely that Russia will run out of liquidity at some time between January and July 2024, and that even if they don’t, they will run out of tanks entirely by August 2024. Furthermore, with Wagner mercenaries (their most effective fighters) seemingly out of the fight, and no political way perform full mobilization, the Russian forces in Ukraine look set to begin to run out of war fighters too. As if this were not bleak enough for Putin, on parts of the front Russian commanders still squander the lives of their men in brutal so called “meat” or “meat wave” attacks. Where it seems, their lives are given up to use up Ukrainian bullets, bombs, and shells enabling the discovery of the dispositions. As though Russian lives are cheap and supplies of mobics plentiful.

Putin is probably incapable of climbing down and ending the War as it may end his career, and maybe his life with it.

Conclusions

Russia needs to remove Putin and replace him with someone who does not “own” the War, and who has the political freedom and the will to withdraw from Ukraine ASAP. This is the only option that may salvage something of Russian pride, military reputation, and equipment. Because it will allow them to claim to have pulled out of Putin’s misguided adventurism due to a wise new leader. So that it can’t be said they were not driven out but chose to leave of their own accord for their own reasons. That they were ordered home by new leadership. Like a new CEO scrapping the misguided vanity projects of a predecessor.

Urgent withdrawal is probably going to be Russia’s best option. Less optimal courses may lead to bankruptcy, and collapse of their offensive, followed by a humiliating rout. Which may precipitate the collapse of the Russian Federation.

Consequently, we are not hearing from Russia their maximalist demands so much now, though the nuclear saber rattling persists. The plain fact is that Ukraine does not need to negotiate with Russia and would be wise not to attempt to do so with Putin who would abuse the process to buy time and regenerate capabilities.

Will Russia have the sense to withdraw unconditionally. Then work hard to get sanctions lifted, so that they can save their economy. Or will Russia continue destroying its own asset base and dooming itself to collapse, leading to defeat, and probably the disintegration of the Russian Federation itself.

Mark Taylor (a.k.a. Mars)

07/10/2023

My murdered mother, assaulted by Russian agents, we called her Nanna Nanna Nanna Nanna!

Ask yourself why Kerch Bridge was on fire Russia…